2007

2008	Climate Change Videos
Other videos Climate Crisis	Whether Global Warming is human-caused (anthropogenic, AGW) or natural warming is REALLY IMPORTANT. Whether we cause 1% of the CO2 in the air or 10% or 60% and exactly how crucial these levels actually are. temperature certainly causes he seas to give off CO2. To what extent does CO2 act as a GHG and warm Earth further? IF IT IS NATURAL, the sun, cosmic rays, etc, our priority is to ADAPT to it, rather than to "STOP" it since we will be unable to. Is the BEST SCIENCE informing us, or is it selected by government policy makers? AGW now has huge amounts of funding, enough to skew the science, precisely what defenders accuse the oil lobby of doing.
	Great Global Warming Swindle, Durkin ABC TV 2007 The most infamous of presentations in the UK to date, Martin Durkin's Swindle caused a storm of protest when it came out. Some attacks referred to previous work of a challenging nature. However... Durkin's graph of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) had "NOW" written on the left but NOW for that graph meant early 1990s and ignored more recent data. Stephen Schneider: Sunspots graph stops at 1980 when solar activity dropped off BUT temperatures continued to rise sharply... Frijs-Christiansen (DK) graph was from 25 years ago (1982?): His team felt they should respond to GGWS: "after 1985 temp. continued to rise while sunspots flattened out." Durkin has now FOUR different versions of his film! Prof. David Karoly (Melbourne, IPCC lead author) CO2 is the major cause of temperature rise over last 50 years. 55 MYA: 20C rise GLOBALLY due to very high CO2 of Iocene Maximum. Isotopic activity: Stratosphere is warmed by sun, but we have cooling for last 30 years. Urban Heat Island may explain land warming but cannot explain the ocean warming. Milankovitch cycles are various solar cycles which mean the Earth's attitudfe to the Sun is different meaning varieties of warming, also relates to ocean feedback. Interglacial, CO2 did NOT lead temp. But CO2 is linked to magnitude of warming. CO2 increases are 30% higher than last million years. CO2: 380ppm now 2007, 300ppm for all of 650,000 years. Prof Bob Carter (James Cook U.) GGWS: Durkin removed Melbourne volcano excerpt... Volcano CO2 on average over 20 c. is NOT greater than human CO2. Over LONG TERM CO2 came from volcanoes. 29 years of highly accurate satellite data does not say what the IPCC wants it too. Svensmark on cosmic rays was sponsored by the Beer Industry! Mann's hockey stick (MBH98) was a fraud! Ray Evans: satellite: southern hemisphere same temperature; northern hemisphere gone up slightly. Urban Heat Island effect. Nick Rowley: see Attenborough on level of risk.. Quotes Kurt Lambeck: CO2 deniers same camp as those who don't support smoking causes cancer. WE MUST MANAGE THIS RISK. 1998: average around now IS warmer than average around 1998. Climate has warmed since 1998, El Nino also played a part. When Greenland was warmer there was a higher sea of 4-6m! What happens when the sea rises? Carl Wunsch (MIT) objection to Durkin: "They misrepresented me"... manmade global warming is a threat.
	R4, 6.3.08. Lovelock quoted as saying it is too late to stop climate change. The damage is done. CBC - Global Warming Doomsday Called Off, Mortensen 2007 Ice core data: shows MWP and LIA. Hockey stick graph (Mann, MBH98). IPCC: MBH98 is key data. Sally Baliunas & Willie Soon: Global data shows there was a MWP. Today's warming is NOTHING UNUSUAL. Water vapour is the MOST IMPORTANT GHG. Second are clouds. 20 c warming early in the century was NOT related to CO2. Then there is a cooling period which can't be related since the CO2 is rising. John Christy: His satellite data for the first time gave a complete time series. shows VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE. Satellites and balloons (radiosonde) returned similar data: Lowest layer of air has hardly become warmer at ALL. Warming at a fairly slow rate. Does not reflect well on climate models. Niels Axel-Morner: Maldives. Evidence from Maldives shows the sea CANNOT BE RISING. The tree. 1200 years ago sea level rose then fell back. Woman's body. it was 30cm higher. 1970 sea fell to present Maldives position, unexpected. Coral fragments. Grey level older sea level. REAL EVIDENCE sea level has GONE DOWN. A remarkable fall of 20-30cm in last 30 years. Possible a strongly increased evaporation of warm Indian Ocean. Evaporation is so fast ocean "does not have time to fill!" More evaporation somewhere means more precipitation somewhere else. "That is the balance of the globe." Ice caps: 100 m of extra sea! 2-3000 years to melt. East Antarctica: 80m of sea level rise. Will it melt? Definitely NO! "If we get a warmer climate East Antarctica will grow!" IPCC scenarios based on DOUBLING CO2 in system. David Legates: Models. Computer model cannot resolve the variety of processes and scales. Very difficult to simulate precipitation. Incomplete base of understanding. GIGO. If models are biased forecasts will be. Christy: Rules. The earth has so many "rules" they are not considered in the models. Climate models are very expensive. There are constituencies to keep happy. My goal is the most accurate data possible. Baliunas: the large range of forecasts tells you the models do not agree and are very uncertain. "Precautionary principle has been adopted as de facto policy". * Scam of the GGW Swindle Mar 2007, Chris Merchant** Climate is always changing, yes. But, we can't assume human effects are zero nor that today's changes are JUST natural. EUROPE had a MWP locally but still GLOBAL temperatures were lower than today's. Early 20c. aerosols were high leading to a period of cooling 1940-75. 80s industry is cleaner. Oceans take decades to respond to CO2. Combining solar and volcanic action with GHGs and industry aerosols matches actual temp graph quite well (IPCC). Yes CO2 is "only" 0.04% concentration in atmosphere. Yes human CO2 is only 2% of total. However, human CO2 IS greater than volcanic CO2. GWS omits that NATURAL CO2 of balanced by NATURAL sinks which also soaks up HALF the extra human CO2 load. Human imbalance IS causing an accumulation in the atmosphere: from 280 to 380 ppm. Milankovitch Cycles (variation in Earth's orbit) drive both temp. and CO2, with temp. first. False dichotomy: eg, (v.simplified) Ice caps shrink sue to MC. The melt exposes sea and land which is heated more. This adds to LOCAL ice melt. When ocean temp. rises, so does emitted CO2 which enhances GHG effect, so a GLOBAL rise. CO2 did NOT drive temp. over last 600k. But we ARE adding record levels now. If we add more GHG, GH effect will strengthen. Model issues. GGWS sun graph IS MANIPULATED. If you include post-1980 data then temp HAS shot up despite a sun drop off. Beware: Ad Hominem arguments!
	*** George Monbiot interview May 07 Net global drying likely. Africa: crop failure. Global food deficit. Pop: maybe 9 BN. [Still now enough food for world as food production outstrips population rise. Distribution remains unfair so people still starve] All previous crises would be "sideshows at the circus of human suffering". Fossil fuels now driving sudden pulse of CO2. Each year 400 years worth of fossil fuel. Tipping point is c. 2C above pre-industrial. Now c. 0.7, almost certainly headed towards 1.3C. Needs 90% cut by 2030. US, 30-35% people think it's urgent. Sir Nicholas Stern: serious global risks. Govt targets are woefully inadequate, wants 7% annual cut. We need an emergency planning footing, tho far less than outbreak of WW2. 2007: CO2 at 380ppm. Media is censored by money. Lies of omission. Few in media have science degrees. Each year German govt upgrades 5% older housing to very high energy efficiency standards. Nuclear power stations. End of nuclear weapons. Domestic hydrogen pipelines. Transport, move bus stations outwards, priority at junctions, dedicated lanes on highways. Electric cars with leased batteries. Political battle with oil industry. "The people versus the oil companies".
	* Climate Catastrophe Cancelled 1-5 (Jan 07) Prof Ian Clark (Ottawa). "There is no evidence of humans being the cause." Vostok ice cores: temperature record shows first CO2 lags by UP TO 800 YEARS. CO2 is a RESULT of temp rise. eg, 1940-80 global cooling despite CO2 rises. Prof Tim Patterson: surface data is selective. Satellites show an almost imperceptible rise over decades. Dr Tim Ball (CA): CO2 is 0.054% of the atmosphere. Large temp variation above 8km. Vikings. Dr Sallie Baliunas: land use affects surface temps. Also LIA. MBH98 report (Mann, hockey stick) rejected long-accepted temp. graphs. The Dr Michael Mann report was never audited. "The GALAXY affects the climate of Earth too!" Deep ocean is a 10,000 year energy store! [and huge CO2 store] CO2 increases also means crops increase! [cf. Revelle] MacIntyre (Ontario): 15cent. temp. value as high as 20cent. "It's a computer programming error." Dr Vincent Gray (NZ): Amundsen, 1906. 8000 years ago the Arctic was 6-8 degrees higher. (Gray) MBH98 should not lead to spending billions of dollars, "the wrong direction". Dr Tad Murty (Carleton): El Nino made a temperature spike in 1998. Since 1918 no cyclone record has been set. No evidence of anything unusual happening in Maldives. Background sea rise is "20cm per century. No scientific evidence that background rate is increasing." Prof. Jan Veizer: CO2 little effect on earth temperature compared to natural causes. World has been generally cooling since 1998 [tho longer trend is upward]. The most important GHGs are: 1,2,3,4, and 5, Water Vapour! IPCC: alarmist summaries BY policymakers - agreed line by line. "The Antarctic is COOLING** over last 50 years."
	***** Climate History of the Last Millennium (1-4) May 07 Steve Wickson. Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Mini Ice Age (MIA, IPCC 1995). Sunspot record correlates with global temperature. [cf. crit. of Friis-Christensen] Beryllium 10 found in ice cores acts as a proxy for sunspot activity. 1970s saw a Global Cooling Controversy (GCC) with huge warnings... Hockey Stick Graph (HSG from MBH98): claims 112 datasets. MacIntyre & McKitrick (M&M, 2003): 35 datasets were not actually used by Mann! Others were duplicated! Some incorrectly mapped! Should really show 20cent. no longer warmest in last 1000 years**. Algorithm preferred datasets underlining 20cent. warming. China has thousands of years record of sunspot activity. C14 proxy, lag about 115 years.
	Glen Beck, Climate of Fear, CNN. 2007? David Legates, as a skeptic he is not allowed to speak for the state. George Taylor, being skeptic "threatens job security". Prof Tim Ball, "the climate is changing all the time!" We know for certain that temperature goes up before CO2 does. Roy Spencer (NASA). Patrick Moore (former Greenpeace): Oregon Petition, 35,000 professionals don't agree GW is human driven [anyone with a degree...]. Nuclear power is important to produce electricity now. Christy: Kilimanjaro is an older fact: the less snow is probably from less cloud and rain rather than GW. Marlo Lewis**: likelihood of Greenland melting is just about zero.
	** An Inconvenient Truth (AIT,06) - well worth a look. Al Gore piles up the evidence. It is a provocative set of "evidences". See Mann HSG graph criticisms. See http://www.realclimate.org
	* The Great Global Warming Swindle (GGWS) Mar 07 C4 by controversial Martin Durkin. Does the evidence stack up? Nir Shariv (ISR): There has been 3x, 10x CO2 previously on Earth. We would never suspect CO2 as a major climate driver (Clark). Piers Corbyn (Solar Scientist): NONE of the major climate changes in the last 1000 years can be explained by CO2. Used sun activity to bet on future weather. Philip Stott (London): IPCC is POLITICAL! MIA - the Thames froze over. Paul Reiter: IPCC, lot of non-scientists. Mosquitoes are abundant in the Arctic! Horrified by IPCC summary. Resigned from IPCC, yet his name still included. Richard Lindzen (MIT), IPCC's 2500: many of them disagree, pure propaganda. CC has seen a major rise, x10, in funding: many jobs. The major factor in weather is the difference between the tropics and the poles. If it gets warmer the differences will be LESS. So less chaos! Nigel Calder (ex, New Scientist) CO2 is how living things grow, a natural gas. Lord Lawson: our CC report was "weak and uncertain". MIA: skate on the Thames! Holocene Maximum: considerably warmer in past. Patrick Micheals (Virginia): look at the basic numbers! Syun-Ichi Akasofu: 1940-75 temp. decrease despite CO2 rapid rise. CO2 really small proportion of air. Manmade even smaller! 95% of atmosphere is water vapour. The poles naturally expand and contract. Ice is always moving. Like falling leaves. John Christy (Alabama), bulk of planet not warming and not in the troposphere either. Fred Singer (US Met) the data is falsified, the warming produces the CO2. Al Gore: Vostok ice cores. Ian Clark: Vostok shows a CO2 LAG of 800 years. Christy: human produced CO2 is in the single digits of CO2 in the atmosphere. Biggest producers of CO2 by far are the oceans. Carl Wunsch (Oceans,MIT): cool oceans absorb CO2, warm oceans emit CO2. Maunder Minimum. Bias towards the dramatic. Frijs-Christiansen: it's the sun! Anti-car, antigrowth, anti-development. Patrick Moore (ex-founder, Greenpeace), gp prevents development, has become its own industry. Left Greenpeace over them trying to ban chlorine worldwide, "environmental extremism, peaceniks, political activists, anti-capitalist agendas". It's "antihuman" not to support development. Roy Spencer (NASA) any wrong assumptions means your way off. Our understanding is not yet good enough. Taking a public stand cuts into research funding. Ian Clark (Ottawa): Need ALL the components for a good model. Tweak parameters, you can model ANYTHING! Thermal expansion of oceans is a very long process. IPCC deleted 15 key chapters in 2006. "disturbing corruption of peer review process". IPCC: no bias in report.
	* Global Climate Change (ABC Sep 06) More hurricanes, flooding, west Antarctic shows more melting. James Lovelock: 'high probability of changing Earth beyond recognition'. Lays on the evidence for AGW. Poles melting. Assumes "The debate is over", Al Gore.